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The Marylander, The Indian-American, and The Bubba Vote
R. Alex Whitlock
John Breaux has announced that he
will run for Louisiana Govenor if he is legally allowed to. The legal hold-up is that Breaux declared residency in Maryland and Louisiana state law requires that the governor be a citizen of Louisiana for the previous five years. Republicans are already planning lawsuits to keep Breaux off the ballot.
Though I have an arcane belief that election laws matter (whether it means helping Republicans in New Jersey or Democrats in Texas), I've pretty much given up on the notion that they will actually be followed. As such, unless there is some existing loophole in the state law that I don't know about that allows Breaux to run, I think that he ought to be barred from running. The initial decision is up to Louisiana's Democratic Attorney General, who will most assuredly look for any loophole he can find, and if he finds one it will probably end up in the courts where it's anyone's guess as to whether or not they will actually care about the law.
I'm actually a little curious as to why Breaux did declare his residency in Maryland. It's safe to assume that he wasn't expecting a gubernatorial bid, but even so it seems like he would want to leave the door open for either that or returning to the senate in the state that will elect him (LA) over a state where he has no ties (MD). I understood Tom Delay's decision insofar as (erroneously thought) it was a way for him to drop out of the race and be replaced, but no such circumstances existed for Breaux.
After the New Orleans exodus, the state of Louisiana is likely to become much more red and the Republicans are going to start enjoying an edge in that state. But John Breaux, Marylander or not, is popular enough to keep the governorship in Democratic hands. So it's not hard to see why Republicans are scrambling to keep him off of the ballot.
The other concern is that the Republican nominee is almost certain to be Bobby Jindal, who lost in a squeaker to Blanco a little over three years ago. Jindal is a great candidate in a number of ways and Republicans are pretty anxious to see him as the first Indian American governor in the country. Unfortunately, there is reason to believe that the whole Indian-American thing didn't go over as well in Louisiana as we might have liked. Jindal managed to score the endorsement of then-popular Democratic Mayor Ray Nagin of New Orleans, which may have done him more harm than good, possibly costing him
the Bubba vote. With New Orleans having been half-vacated, it's possible that the Bubba vote is going to become more important than ever and it's difficult to imagine that they will be less likely to vote for Breaux than they were Blanco.
Whatever the case, it should be the most exciting gubernatorial race next year!
Observations
Vote Independent! Vote Anthony "Tony G" Gentile Governor of Louisiana! You and Tony G! that's what's right for Louisiana!
The acid test as to wether or not Breaux is a citizen (for the past 5 years) could be his state income tax returns.
Cool,
I don't know how Louisiana state income tax works (being from a state that has no income tax). Do they require that non-residents pay taxes for money made within the state? If not, and he's not paying taxes, then Louisiana citizenship would be hard for him to claim. If not and he is paying taxes, then he's in like flynn. I'm not sure what happens if he'd have to pay income taxes either way.
RAW,
I tried to look up that question on Louisiana's laws and couldn't get anywhere (not surprising given that tax law is the most byzantine law in the nation).
I can see the following things they might look at to determine "citizenship":
- voter registration for the national 2000/02/04/06 elections
- where he paid taxes
- housing ownership/primary address (though in some states, a PO Box address is good enough for proof of 'citizenship', due mostly to numerous people who probably live so far into the boonies that making a mailman drive that far every day isn't cost effective).
- State in which he's had his drivers' license
- Whether or not he met other citizenship criteria (like serving in a jury pool) in the past 5 years.
Now, as to whether the election laws will actually be followed? Just like the court judges in past cases (Traficant, Lott) I too get the feeling the judge will come up with anything at all to benefit his own political party, and to hell with what the law actually says.
Sorry, but Louisiana has an open primary where there are nominees. Anyone can vote for anyone, and it the top 2 in the run off. Whether its a democart and a republican; 2 democrats; 2 repubicans; independent and a democrat, etc.
It is more than telling when Democrats cannot find a Democratic candidate for governor within the boundaries of Louisiana.
Smooth Cat, no matter what the open primary says, the "candidate" decided by that primary still has to meet the rest of the requirements to be a candidate.
Mike,
Presumably Breaux has met citizenship criteria in the past five years, the question is what he's been up to since retiring in 2005. Good list, though, of considerations.
Cat,
Good point, I shouldn't have used the word "nominee".
PO,
The Dems have conserable portion of their supporting demographics. It's not surprising that they are concerned.
Well, we've got a representative for an independent candidate and from a Breaux supporter. Any Jindal supporters wanna make a pitch? Landrieu supporters?
I suggest the Breaux supporter's post be removed, because:
- he didn't make a case for his candidate
- his provided email address was "jindalisbad@gmail.com."
If he was going to debate and comment, fine. Commentspamming the blog is rude and shouldn't be tolerated, we get enough of that already.
Cat,
According to my sources, the Dems got tired of the open primaries and now they are like other states, R vs R and D vs D in the primaries.
Tmar,
Your sources are wrong. There is talk of moving to a primary structure, but right now it's an open election.
Since the link is pertinent to the discussion I don't have a problem with it. Someone decides to start pushing Viagra, though, we got a problem.
I live here (Louisiana). Primaries are open and if no candidate receives more than 50% of the vote, then the top two have a runoff. Admittedly we have little choice here, but there has been little choice in any election for years. (remember Edwards - Duke). I have to agree that Nagin's support is a negative. Who wants to be supported by someone who seeks to blame others for problems beyond the control of any one person. Given a choice at the moment I would support Jindal, not because he is a (fill in your favorite ethnic group or political party) but because he appears to be the best choice for a leader. Is Breaux a candidate? Legally, if I remember correctly, when he registerd to vote in Maryland that would make him a citizen of Maryland unless they have provisions for Aliens to vote there. Would I vote for him? maybe. What is his platform and how does he plan to pull off the miracle of changing Louisiana politics?
What did Breaux do in the time he held office when representing our state. He was there for a very long time but I can't for the life of me remember a single thing he did to benefit our state.
The Louisiana Supreme Court looked at this very issue not barely two years ago. If they followed the standard laid out at that time, then Breaux will be DQd. Most court watchers expect the Court to fashion some type of "Super Citizen" standard that ties a politician's identity to the state. Represent the State for 30 years in Congress and you just are considered a citizen until the day you die. Short of moving to Afghanistan to join the Talaban, you will always be a citizen of Louisiana.
North Louisiana white's gave Blanco the governorship in 2003. These were the former Duke voters (very interesting study done on this for those who can find it). Those voters simply refused to vote for the non-white Jindal. Most realize now what a mistake it was. Whether that translates into Jindal votes now there is a viable Democrat in the race remains to be seen.
Many are starting to ask whether Breaux was part of the "problem" which lead to Katrina. After all, Louisiana is like it is because of Democrats like Breaux who have run it for centuries. After Katrina, there was the thought that this presented us with a unique opportunity to properly rebuild an American city. It could be great. But everyone forgot the people running nola before Katrina were the same people running nola after Katrina. And with all the federal money pouring in, it was the chance for the skim of a lifetime.
/I have to agree that Nagin's support is a negative. Who wants to be supported by someone who seeks to blame others for problems beyond the control of any one person./
I was actually referring to Nagin's support in the last election, before all the crapola hit the fan. I think that it may have contributed to the some antagonism on the part of rural southerners to New Orleans and what NOLA represents, including race.
/Most court watchers expect the Court to fashion some type of "Super Citizen" standard that ties a politician's identity to the state. Represent the State for 30 years in Congress and you just are considered a citizen until the day you die./
I honestly wouldn't think that'd be too bad of a law, but it's definitely one that should come from the legislature rather than the courts.
/North Louisiana white's gave Blanco the governorship in 2003. These were the former Duke voters (very interesting study done on this for those who can find it). Those voters simply refused to vote for the non-white Jindal./
That was the subject of the Weekly Standard article I linked to in regards to the "Bubba Vote".
What is not being stated here is the fact that the Louisiana State Supreme Court(LOL) will allow Breaux to run. After all if gambling is out outlawed by the state constitution(nad still is) then they just called it gameing and everything was all OK. So it will not matter what the definition of citizen is to the population at large, the LSSC has their own dictionary.
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