Continued from the previous post...

The most immediate question is that if the Big XII South did choose to break off, what would they do? Six teams is not enough for a conference. First of all, it would probably be just five teams as cellar-dweller Baylor would not likely be part of the negotiations. In addition to dumping Baylor, they would probably consider bringing along a team or two from the North. Here are where the B12N schools would stand:

Missouri: Mizzou would probably be the best positioned of the B12N for inclusion in the new conference. They have both St. Louis and Kansas City markets on their belt and are generally one of the better of the Big 12 North teams. They are the only D-1A school in the state, so there wouldn't be other state schools to consider as there would be with Kansas. If the conference expands westward, though, they could be left out to dry without a natural home.

Colorado: Colorado is in a different time zone than the rest of the conference and is geographically the farthest out. They have the Denver market as well as some smaller ones, but it's an NFL state more than a college football one. They're in the upper echelon of B12N teams, but they're likely to be the odd-school out unless the conference expands westward. If it expands eastward, they'd still be in decent shape as one of the upper-tier teams in the Mountain West Conference

Nebraska: The breakoff conference would probably like to have Nebraska along because they do receive national attention, continually pack a large, full house for home games, and are (the last couple years notwithstanding) a cut above the rest in their division. The problem is that their inclusion would hurt the geographical integrity of the conference and they don't carry any major television markets. They would probably be the odd-man out. If left out, they would probably find a home in the Mountain West Conference.

Kansas: Kansas is a basketball powerhouse and that would be their chief selling point. Along with Missouri they would lock up the Kansas City market. They also have a rivalry with Missouri that could help them hitch their wagons to a school more likely to be included. They are, however, one of two Kansas schools and bringing them in without also bringing in K-State could present problems. If left out, they may or may not be able to find a home in the Mountain West Conference. If not, they could be in trouble.

Kansas State: K-State has had a good program in the past and may in the future, though I have my doubts that it will be any time soon. They are second-fiddle to Kansas despite their football superiority. I would expect them to be one of the losers of the breakaway. Like Missouri and Kansas, they would need to hope that the MWC expands or that a new conference is formed between B12 rejects and Mountain West schools.

Iowa State: They are likely to be the school most hurt by a breakaway. They would not be considered for invitation into the new conference and unlike their counterparts to the west they don't have any conferences that they could easily join. There is a pretty decent chance that they would end up as the far-flung school in the MAC

So if we were to include Missouri, we would have six schools in the conference: Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and Missouri.

The next most obvious place to look would be the old members of the Southwest Conference, which the Texas schools were once a part of. The pickings there are pretty slim. I would love to think that this would be my alma mater University of Houston's chance at a conference upgrade, but I don't see any scenario where that is likely. The Houston media market is already dominated by Texas and A&M and even Texas Tech gets more exposure despite being a smaller school 10 hours away. Though winning the Conference USA championship this year, they have still failed to distinguish themselves against smaller caliber competiton. The most likely beneficiary would in the old SWC would probably be TCU, which has continued to thrive in the tougher Mountain West Conference and has the benefit of being a private school if the conference decides that it needs one -- but even then they don't have any major markets to deliver that the new conference wouldn't already have and as a small private school it doesn't have a very large alumni base. Rice, SMU, and their Conference USA brethren would not likely be under serious consideration.

The other former Southwest Conference school of interest would be Arkansas. Arkansas left the SWC and ensured its demise in the early nineties. They're already a member of a top-tier conference, the SEC, so they may just want to stay put. However, there has often been the sense that they would have been more at home in the Big 12 and Arkansas fans seem divided. I think that given the opportunity, the chances are probably better than not that they would be interested.

Including Arkansas, as well as Missouri, would be part of an eastward expansion. The real coup de'tat of eastward expansion would be SEC powerhouse LSU. LSU is on the wrong side of Louisiana and has been a member of the SEC for a very long time. It would be rather difficult to tear them away from their conference.

The selling point for LSU (and Arkansas) would be based on a four things:

1) Money, money, money. The SEC is a very strong conference, but it doesn't dominate very many large markets and it shares most of those it has. It has Nashville, Memphis, Lexington, part of Louisville maybe, and Birmingham all to itself, but the bigger markets are shared. It has one of two BCS schools in Georgia and one of four in Florida. It has New Orleans, of course, but that would be leaving with LSU. It would also be a part of a conference splitting its loot eight or nine ways rather than twelve.

2) They would have increased access to the Texas recruiting pool, which right now is helping greatly to keep the Big XII North above water. LSU and Arkansas already recruit from Texas, but they would have a lot easier a time of it if they were regularly playing bigtime Texas schools. LSU is one of the few big schools willing to play in Houston, and I doubt it's to help their BCS standings. Their profile in Texas would be greatly helped by being conference-mate of its three highest-profile schools.

3) For all of its football excellence, the SEC is often underappreciated. Undefeated Auburn was left out of the national championship a few years ago in favor of Big XII champ Oklahoma. Florida was almost left out this year and probably would have been if Michigan hadn't already played and lost to #1 Ohio State. SEC teams have to fight one another hard week in and week out and even when they do come out on top, they don't get their just reward. The proposed breakaway conference may not be a whole lot better in that regard, but they'd be getting paid better for it and by-and-large the Big XII seems to have better luck with national profile even when it has weaker teams.

4) Rivalries! Arkansas and Texas have a longstanding rivalry dating back to the SWC and I think both schools would enjoy that being renewed. LSU doesn't have any rivalries in Texas, but it seems to me that A&M would be a natural rival for the Tigers (honestly, both schools should consider scheduling each other year in and year out regardless of conference). LSU would lose its rivalry with Ole Miss, but from what I understand that rivalry is not what it once was and has been replaced by LSU's rivalry with Arkansas. An LSU-Texas or LSU-A&M rivalry would likely be a lot higher profile than any rivalry with a Mississippi school.

If LSU and Arkansas were to join up, they would probably want a ninth team. The most logical candidates would be Kansas or TCU. One of the theories behind Baylor's inclusion in the Big XII was that if they didn't have a private school they'd be subject to all kinds of transparency-in-government laws. If this was really the reason that Baylor was included, then TCU would be in like Flynn. TCU would also provide schools an opportunity to play in the DFW area at least once every couple of years, which isn't bad for recruiting. However, if it was really a matter of Texas Gov. Ann Richards and Lt. Gov. Bob Bullock, both Baylor alums, chiming in, then Kansas would help make up for what the conference would be losing in basketball. Missouri might also insist that Kansas be included.

I think that the chances are better than not that Arkasas would go for it. it's almost certain that they would if LSU was willing to go along. I discussed it with my father-in-law, an LSU grad, and he said that the LSU moneymen would be intrigued, but that the state legislature may put a stop to it.

If eastward expansion didn't pan out, the remaining option would be to look westward. That would mean keeping Colorado and perhaps losing Missouri. The five remaining Big 12 South teams plus Colorado and Nebraska could join up with Colorado State and New Mexico to make an nine-team conference or could include Utah, BYU, Nebraska, and UNLV or TCU to form a 12-conference league with a championship.

The problem is that the 9-team configuration would be a marginal improvement (if that) because it doesn't include the Utah schools and they would be losing the Missouri markets.

The top of the crop from the MWC would probably be superior to the Big 12 North as it is now, but I'm not sure it would be enough to compensate for the geographic disparity. The good news for the old B12 teams (except Colorado) is that they would be in a division that doesn't have to travel westward but once or twice a year. I just don't know that this would be enough of a change to make it worth the while of half the Big 12 schools to stab the other half in the back.

So here are the scenarios:

Eastward Expansion:
Texas
Texas A&M
Texas Tech
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
Missouri
Arkansas
LSU
Kansas or TCU

Westward Expansion (12)
East
Texas
Texas A&M
Texas Tech
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
Nebraska or TCU
West
Colorado
Colorado State
New Mexico
BYU
Utah
Nebraska or UNLV

Westward Expansion (9)
Texas
Texas A&M
Texas Tech
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
Nebraska
Colorado
Colorado State
New Mexico