
Our problem, in short, is the incentives that guide individual spending decisions are much like those that generate military arms races. Spending less would be better, but only if everyone did it. [...]
We can do this in a powerful yet unintrusive way by scrapping our current income tax in favor of a more steeply progressive consumption tax. Such a tax would be straightforward to administer: Each family would pay tax not on its income, but on its total spending--as measured by the simple difference between its annual income and its annual savings.
Because the rich are able to save and invest so much more than the poor, fairness would require that tax rates on the highest spenders be significantly higher than the current top tax rates on incomes. But even if tax rates were set to raise no more total revenue than under the current system, a consumption tax would have a profound effect on specific purchase decisions.
Consider the choice between a Porsche 911 Turbo ($105,000) and a Ferrari 456 GT ($207,000). The Ferrari buyer is currently willing to spend $102,000 more for his top-of-the-line purchase. But with a top rate on taxable consumption of, say, 70 percent, the effective premium to buy the Ferrari would be more than $173,000.
Because the consumption tax offers an exemption for savings, the Ferrari buyer would have a strong incentive to invest a little more in the stock market and a little less on his car. If he buys the Porsche, his outlay--including the tax--will be $178,000. In return, he gets a car that performs just as well as the Ferrari and, assuming others have responded similarly, just as rare. The tax preserves the aficionado's ability to indulge his passion for sports cars while increasing his savings.
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