The last senate election were supposed to be a bad one for Republicans, but they held the line and even gained a seat. This senate election was supposed to be good for Republicans with a few Dem retirements in conservative states, but things are looking pretty good for Democrats right now:

Seven months ago, the Democrats' quest for the Senate appeared hopeless, and Republicans, who cling to a slim 51-to-48 majority (with one independent), were confidently predicting they would widen that lead. Especially in the Republican-friendly South, Democrats were staring at a wipeout, with five of their Senators — Fritz Hollings of South Carolina, John Breaux of Louisiana, John Edwards of North Carolina, Zell Miller of Georgia and Bob Graham of Florida — all deciding to retire.

But Democrats have since recruited credible-enough candidates that the party now has a shot at holding on to three or four of the Southern seats — in South Carolina, North Carolina, Florida and Louisiana. And in the West, Democrats are hoping to nab the open seats left by the retirement of Republican Senators Ben Nighthorse Campbell of Colorado and Don Nickles of Oklahoma, and to take on the vulnerable Lisa Murkowski in Alaska. So suddenly the math has changed: Democrats can see their way to a net gain of two seats, which would give them a slim advantage in the Senate. "We're at the cusp of a victory in November," says Senator Jon Corzine, who chairs the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. G.O.P. leaders insist that the Democrats' hope is a pipe dream. Most of the seats up for grabs are in G.O.P.-heavy states that Bush won handily in 2000. "They simply cannot blow away the reality," says Senator George Allen, chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee.

What makes Democrats sound so giddy? Bush's sinking approval ratings and the poll numbers showing that voters, by 49% to 37% in a TIME poll in early June, say they plan to vote for a Democrat rather than a Republican in congressional elections. Democrats also see two favorable omens in the special-election victories for two House seats, one in South Dakota on June 1 and one four months ago in Kentucky.

If voters decide to keep Bush (because they can't stomach Kerry) but his poll numbers remain as low as they have, I believe the voters will probably take it out on the Republican congressional candidates. If Kerry wins, the Republicans may pick up his senate seat and possibly that of his vice president if it's Florida Senator Nelson (looks unlikely, though, as I've seen his name mentioned less and less in current weeks).

Since most House seats are safe, the Senate is likely to be where the action is. So far most of the press has been focusing on Illinois, where the Democrats will almost certainly pick up a seat. I've not been following the senate races in the south (where the Republicans have a chance to pick up some seats). It's worth pointing out that Democrats were really excited about taking Colorado last election (with the "endangered" Senator Allard) and it didn't happen. They have to pick up at least one more seat beyond Illinois to regain the Senate.

The Democrats seem to have done a pretty impressive job of candidate selection this time around. It was Bush's (or Rove's) recruitment of national figures (Lamar Alexander and Libby Dole) that helped keep open seats safe.